A View from the North
By Peter Fitzsimons, Executive Director, Petoskey-Harbor Springs-Boyne Country Convention & Visitors Bureau

When asked by reporters, over the years, to discuss the most recent tourist season or event (Memorial Day weekend, Labor Day weekend, Christmas, etc.) I would sometimes reply that “analyzing tourism is much like the blind men feeling the elephant” but I quit using the metaphor because by the time it made the newspaper it would become: “Visually challenged are stumped by area tourism” or “Tourism director says that ‘all men asked responded that last weekends business was like a snake’”. It drove me crazy…but it was a short drive.
 
Now Lori and Don have asked that I share some insight as to what’s going on in tourism around Northwest Michigan – and me without an elephant.
 
First of all, Tom Nemacheck, in my world Northwest Michigan is loosely defined by everything included within a line north from Clare to Mackinaw City and one west over to Ludington. Suburban Ontonagon and Bessemer are considered, by me, the Western U.P. My view of things is taken from somewhere just outside Petoskey.
 
So elephants are out, but in terms of macroeconomics our tourism tends to lag behind national economic trends by several months. Think of economics as a line of traffic and we are a bus somewhere near the rear. When the front slows to a crawl our bus, in the back of the line, keeps cruising along for a while and gradually slows down. The down side is that when things in the front get back up to speed it takes some time before our bus gets out of first gear. So things appear to look pretty good coming out of the blocks in 2004…with the economy heating back up it is perfect timing for us to get our bus load of hospitality up to speed by the time May/June rolls around and hopefully lead into a great summer season. Getting through the winter will be a separate challenge.
 
Now lets talk about our favorite subject: The Madam of Disaster, the Ultimate Terrorist, The Good, The Bad, The Ugly…it must be Mother Nature!! Yes, indeed she does have a sense of humor. In 2001 she gave us 7 feet of snow in Petoskey in four days and then last winter it was snow, rain, snow, rain, cold, cold, cold…for 6 months. We love winter and all but gee whiz! The black morel mushrooms finally came by mid-May but the whites got frozen out along with a lot of tree and vine fruits. Spring finally came along with the rains (we needed to fill up the lakes for the boaters anyway), summer was basically good then she really pulled a fast one in the fall. My daily color reports for the middle of October were: Green Monday, Green Tuesday, 10% Wednesday, Full Color Thursday!!! It was just like somebody flipped a light switch!, then ‘poof’ it was done and we started our snow dances!
 
But Mother Nature had one more trick up her sleeve to deliver during the Christmas to New Year’s week…negligible snow and mild temperatures. Fortunately we have the snowmaking capacity and expertise to fool Mother Nature, at least for downhill skiing, and produced great Alpine skiing all through the holidays. But as good as the skiing was at Boyne, Crystal, Nub’s and the rest, we were not able to motivate enough skiers to trek north for three to six hours through monochromatic (brown) Michigan to overflow with any great numbers into the area hotels, motels and condominiums. Our friends and neighbors in the snowmobile business do not have the snowmaking capabilities and suffered greatly from the absence of a white Christmas. Humbug.
 
So all and all the tourism horizon appears to be pretty bright; however, it’s just not the same and it’s going to take some new ways of doing and thinking about ‘things’ to be successful. We are all busily gazing into our crystal balls while reviewing a few of the trends that we see:
 
‘Waiting to the last minute’ used to be something our mothers would yell at us for and now it’s the standard of behavior. Between the Weather Channel, the Internet, and the whole ‘time poverty issue’ we can now justify to our mothers that we really weren’t procrastinating…we were just ahead of our time. Can we react in the last minute in ’04?
 
Worldwide, hotels have dumped deeply discounted inventory onto the web and customers now expect it. Even though most of our properties haven’t participated our customers (going to other major destinations) have. Can we adjust in ’04?

You name it – our supply exceeds our demand. No more in ’04!
 
The new status symbol is ‘cheaper is chicer’ (also known as ‘paying less than the person next to you’) and 82% of consumers intend to negotiate hotel rates* Are we ready in ’04?
 
Only 5% of online booking engine visitors actually book.* The rest seem to be shopping, dreaming, playing or whatever. Is this a 95% empty glass or a 5% missed opportunity in ’04?
 
An emerging phenomenon called ‘Buying Up’ or ‘I’m Worth It’…always been with us but seemingly getting stronger. It has to do with having a few priorities on which you splurge. Live on day-old bread and water for a month to save enough for a weekend at the Grand Hotel; save up enough by getting donated clothes for your family from the Salvation Army so that you can buy a new Mercedes Benz. Regardless of what we do our customers will want more in ’04.
 
The ‘time poverty’ issue has caused a great amount of guilt within families and the ‘Family Vacation’ has turned into the surrogate for not spending time with the kids during the year*. Are we prepared to help families bond on vacation in ’04?
 
The drunk driving laws continue to contribute to buying patterns particularly for the sports enthusiasts: skiers, golfers, rugby players, whatever. When considering rates at the course/hill/pitch, for example, the price may well be $200 to $300 more per weekend to stay on-site compared to an area motel with a comparable inclusive package. We can hear their mental gears grinding and more and more they will decide either to go to the full service resort or not come at all! We had better figure out in ’04 how to better move our guests around that desire, or sometimes need, transportation.
 
And a couple of my favorites:
 
61% of all Americans think that their IQ is above average*!!!! You be the judge. Are we prepared to provide a quality vacation experience to 11% of the population who are not quite as bright as they think they are in ’04?

‘The youth of today does not have a good work ethic’**. Is this something new in ’04? Please read the footnote.

“If a man is a fool, the best thing to do is to encourage him to advertise the fact by speaking. It cannot be so easily discovered if you allow him to remain silent and look wise. But if you let him speak, the secret is out”.***
 
Have a great and prosperous new year.
Peter Fitzsimons
 
References:
*        Peter Yesawich – YPB&R
**       Plato, Greek Philosopher, 428c – 348 BC and reiterated by every generation since
***     President Woodrow Wilson