Is “contrarianism” even a word? Either way, being a contrarian is not easy. We are taught from an early age that conformity is safe, fitting in with the crowd avoids the pain of ridicule and fighting popular opinion is… unpopular. And yet the older I get the less I like popular trends and ideas. For instance, I think our family may be the last on earth without a TV. We have been without for four years now (try that with a 7 and 5 year old in the house!) and I can only shake my head at the amount of time and energy our country wastes sitting slack jawed in front of the television. You’d think the transition from analog to digital frequency last week was larger than Y2K. And popular indeed was the drive for larger and more lavish homes in the last decade or so. Now even the super rich can’t afford themselves in the aftermath of this silly consumer contest. For those who read the lead story in the NYTimes business section about the bankruptcy of the Yellowstone Club might also share my personal disgust. Honestly, in my profession I find that well timed contrarianism yields some of the most profitable investments. Some would argue that investors only make money when they act against the herd. That’s not exactly true at all times but certainly when mass psychology hits an extreme, there are clear opportunities and risks. Today, I am beginning to see several extremes in consensus opinion regarding certain sectors and asset classes. For this update, I want to call them out and voice a contrarian outcome for each.