Public libraries in the United States have seen usage increase and revenues decline during the past few years, and these funding facts have affected other aspects of those libraries. This article examines those trends, probes the underlying causes, and considers future trends. It is based on analysis presented in some detail on a page at the Normative Data Project’s Web site.

The National Center for Education Statistics collects and publishes data on U.S. public libraries. These data were recompiled for trend analysis, and the data best suited for studying national trends are available from the National Commission on Libraries and Information Science. The data span the fiscal years 1992 through 2003.

Starting in the late 1990s, there was a strain on library budgets that appears in different years depending on the statistic examined. At the same time, total income and total operating expenditures rose from fiscal year 1992 to fiscal year 2003, as did the per capita income (up 51 percent) and operating expenditures (up 58 percent).

Expenditures, then, rose more than income in dollar terms. The ratio of total income to operating expenditures shows that the percent of income expended on operations went from 90.7 percent to 94.9 percent, and as a result, less was left for such budget items as capital outlays. The squeeze was on.

Slowly, as we entered the 21^st century, more and more aspects of the libraries felt the pressure. From fiscal year 2000 on, our analysis shows that both the total income and operating expenditure figures decline in inflation-adjusted terms and library budgets lose purchasing power. In 2001, purchasing power for collection expenditures per capita begins its decline. In fiscal year 2003, full-time equivalent (FTE) employees at public libraries fell marginally from its 2002 high of 136,219. A decline in this statistic is unprecedented in these data as total staff had averaged an increase of about 2,000 a year during the entire period. It would appear that library directors cut their budgets more and more each year and then, finally, resorted to cutting staff.

During the period, total circulations went up.

Library customers apparently were happy with their public libraries as shown by the increase in total circulations and the underlying per capita circulation figures (from 6.44 in 2000 to 7.01 in 2003).

In 2003, U.S. public libraries, therefore, had fewer staff with less money to spend to meet increasing materials-circulation and other demands from the public.

What about the experience of individual states?

These are national figures, but if one looks at the states individually, we find a richer and more complex story: a number of states are doing well, and, to balance these states out, others have done correspondingly worse than national averages would suggest. For example, from 2000 to 2003, Nevada, Indiana, New Mexico, Ohio, and New York fell the most in total income per capita as a percent while South Dakota, Kentucky, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming increased the most. Of course, Ohio’s figure in 2003 is still the highest of the states in spite of its decline, and New York’s figure is fourth.

The fact that the experience of the states varies so much over time leads to this question: “What works to best fund public libraries?” This is an important empirical and information policy question raised by this analysis: As a nation, how do we best fund public library services?

What about today?

Definitive national surveys that tell us what is going on today won’t be available until about 2008, although there are developments afoot to speed up the process to compile these data.

However, small samples can be collected quickly and can give us more immediate insights. For example, American Libraries for November 2005 (v. 36, no. 10, pp. 57-58) reports the results of such a survey with 2004 data. The picture there shows a decline in absolute circulations and in purchasing power of dollar expenditures. Another effort is that being conducted by the American Library Association’s Office for Research and Statistics that is attempting to get at funding levels now. The results will be released during National Library Week (American Libraries, March 2006 (v. 37. no.3, pp 28-29).

What about the future?

U.S. public libraries are funded in a variety of ways. In most cases, funding is provided locally, but there are other patterns. Generally, when the economy of the locality or state rises, depending on the mix of funding sources, library funding will increase. When the economy of the state or nation falls, library funding will be cut. Anecdotal evidence from recent experience suggests that the increases following a rising economy come more slowly than the cuts during a falling economy.

Given that the economy is currently booming, we can expect library budgets to increase in the near future, and the preliminary evidence presented in the March 2006 article cited above seems to bear out this projection. It seems, then, that the picture presented here through 2003 and the 2004 data from the sample reported in November 2005 represent a low point. We are, however, working with others to provide data and techniques that will help us better anticipate trends and plan for both feast and famine.

A more detailed examination of these subjects is available on the Normative Data Project for Libraries Web page. A shorter version appeared in American Libraries for March 2006 (p. 29).