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Monday, February 24, 2003
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VOLUME 1
ISSUE 26
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Finding the needle in a stack of needles.
Bob Stewart, manager of strategic intelligence, Dialog, bob.stewart@dialog.com
In this week’s column, I’ll take a look at trends and new directions in four major industries – Pharmaceutical, Chemical, Automotive, and Telecommunications/Networking.
Pharmaceutical Industry
Is the US pharmaceutical market poised for a comeback in 2003?
JP Morgan predicts double-digit earnings growth in 2003 for the pharmaceutical industry in general with earnings per share growth of 10 percent in 2003 and 14 percent in 2004-2005. However, conditions that include more intense head-to-head competition and a tougher FDA mean that growth is more than ever dependent on R&D productivity. The gap between the winners and losers in the industry is expected to continue to grow.
US pharmaceuticals may see revival in 2003. (Life Sciences)Article available at Business and Industry®, Accession Number 3628725 or click here (Dialog account required).
Top pharmaceutical companies are counting on key later-stage drug candidates for this year and the near future.
New drugs are exiting the pipeline and becoming available at the slowest rate in a decade despite tripling R&D spending and a revamped FDA approval process. With that said, several major pharmaceutical companies are banking on a few key products that should come to market this year and in the near future. This article examines the short-term prospects for 10 of the largest drug producers and contains a list of possible “Billion-Dollar Mega Brands” for 2002-2005.
Finding the bright spots in the vanishing pharma pipeline. (Focus 2003: Pharmaceutical & Fine Chemicals Outlook).Chemical Market Reporter, Volume: 263, Number: 2, Page: FR3(4), Jan 13 2003; Article available at Gale Group PROMT®, Accession Number 10241558 or click here (Dialog account required).
Challenging times in the global drug industry – a country-by-country breakdown of sales and sales growth for the top 12 countries
According to a recent study by IMS Health, global pharmaceutical sales growth slowed to 8 percent for the 12 months ending September 2002. Manufacturers of generics are hitting blue chip drug companies hard. The market in North America continues to grow at double-digit rates, while growth in the rest of the world is at much lower levels. Included in the article is a table of the top 12 countries ranked by pharmaceutical sales, as well as a list of the top five drug companies.
Global Rx sales growth slows to 8%: The challenge of generics makers to the blue chip pharmaceutical companies is taking a toll. (Marketplace). Chain Drug Review, Volume: 24, Number: 21, Page: RX12, December 16, 2002; Article available at TableBase™ , Accession Number 1083904 or click here (Dialog account required).
Chemical Industry
Chemical Producers say they are bracing for a tough year
The footing is uncertain for chemical manufacturers in 2003. The 4th quarter of 2002 was much weaker than expected. Prices for raw materials such as natural gas and petroleum have spiked since November 2002 and the prospect of war with Iraq is casting an additional shadow on the industry. Most of the major players in the chemical industry are trying to improve productivity and cash flow. In addition to forecasts for nine types of products, this article includes forecasts for the effect of terrorism and Washington policies on the chemical industry.
Forecast 2003: Hesitant recovery amid global uncertainties. Chemical Week, v165n1, Page: 17-29, Jan 1-Jan 8, 2003: Article available at ABI/INFORM®, Accession Number 2511528 or click here (Dialog account required).
Telecommunications/Network Industry
In an effort to keep customers from switching carriers, the major telecom companies are bundling their services
2002 was not a good year for the telecom industry. WorldCom and Qwest experienced much publicized difficulties, and the rest of the industry is mired in debt and plummeting stock prices. Under a theory that consumers will be hesitant to switch all the parts of a bundled package, telecoms such as AT&T, Verizon and others are offering combo packages where available for local/long distance/wireless/DSL services. But does everyone want a bundle?
In chilly market, telecoms bundle up various services. (Out Look 2003: Telecom). Brandweek, Volume: 44, Number: 1, Page: 16(1), Jan 6 2003; Article available at Gale Group PROMT®, Accession Number 10237078 or click here (Dialog account required).
EU to implement new telecommunications regulatory framework
This article summarizes the Eighth Report from the Commission on the Implementation of the Telecommunications Regulatory Package, published December 3, 2002. The purpose of the commission is to have European telecommunications markets deliver their full potential to consumers, and the report evaluates the state of the market after four and a half years of liberalization and analyses the current regulatory framework, which is the basis for the transition to the new regulatory framework (NRF).
EU moves ahead in implementation of new telecommunications regulatory framework. EuropeMedia, Page: NA, December 23, 2002; Article available at Business and Industry®, Accession Number 3616609 or click here (Dialog account required).
With telecommunications carriers shying away from major network upgrades, network equipment makers look to the enterprise for revenues
As telecommunications carriers continue to retrench, with few signs of conducting major network upgrades in the immediate future, many network equipment makers have turned their attention to enterprises. Frequently, the detour has meant products designed for service providers have been tweaked to suit enterprises. The likely enterprise customers are those that look upon their networks as a strategic resource, such as financial services or oil companies.
Technology Make-Over.(Industry Overview). eWeek, Dec 16 2002: Article available at Gale Group PROMT®, Accession Number 10228258 or click here (Dialog account required).
Automotive
North American business is good for European parts makers – and they plan on more growth
Several European auto parts players are planning new plants in the United States, and others have purchased manufacturing operations in North America. They are growing in the U.S. market as longtime customers such as BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz gain sales here and as General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and the Chrysler group seek high-tech parts to keep pace with the competition. Although these manufacturers have ambitious goals for the future, the road could be rough as Big Three sales decline and they pressure all their suppliers for price givebacks.
European suppliers find growth in N. America. (News)Automotive News, Volume: 77, Number: 6020, Page: 30J, January 13, 2003; Article available at Business and Industry®, Accession Number 3640149 or click here (Dialog account required).
Car rental companies planning strategic and calculated growth into certain markets
The future of the car rental industry is impossible to predict, and many of the factors are out of their control - the airline industry, the U.S. economy and the potential war with Iraq. A trend that began in 2002 and should continue is the refocus on the local market, traditionally under the control of companies like Enterprise. The suburban market is more stable than the airport market, and the big players want a bigger piece. Enterprise has responded by targeting airport business.
The road ahead: next year will be one of moderate growth and careful expansions for the car rental industry. (Car Rentals).Travel Agent, Volume: 310, Number: 12, Page: 24(1), Dec 23 2002;
Article available at Gale Group PROMT®, Accession Number 10228021 or click here (Dialog account required).
The axis of the European auto industry may shift toward central Europe
In May 2004, the European Union will expand from 15 to 25 member countries. In coming years, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are expected to join. Automakers are vying for early positions in what is predicted to become a booming car market over the next two decades. With labor costs currently one-sixth of those in more western markets, central and eastern Europe are poised to become a prime location for new auto plants.
A bigger Europe, a bigger market. (News) Automotive News Europe, Volume: 8, Number: 1, Page: 3, January 13, 2003; Article available at Business and Industry®, Accession Number 3638483 or click here (Dialog account required).
Background
Bob Stewart is manager of strategic intelligence at Dialog and a 12-year veteran of the online information industry. Dialog, a pioneer in developing the technology behind electronic information retrieval, is the world leader in providing online-based information services to organizations seeking competitive advantages in such fields as business, science, engineering, finance and law. In 2002, Dialog celebrated 30 years of excellence in the online information industry. www.dialog.com.
Copyright 2003 Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals, www.scip.org
scip.online, issue 26, Feburary 24, 2003.
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