May 2008
Predicting Iridium Flares


At present there is a "constellation" of 66 active Iridium communications satellites and nine spares, all moving along in nearly circular orbits at an altitude of about 780 km above Earth's surface. Each Iridium satellite has three highly-reflective, mirror-like antennas, called "Main Mission Antennas" (MMAs).

Each MMA is tilted down 40 degrees from the long axis of the spacecraft, and the long axis always points down toward the center of the Earth. Should you be looking up in the direction of one of these MMAs and see the reflection of the Sun through it, you will observe, for a few fleeting seconds, a bright flare of sunlight that can exceed visual magnitude -8. That's about 20 times brighter than the planet Venus at its brightest.

That bright flare of sunlight, moving swiftly in front of a relatively fixed star background, is what is called an "Iridium flare." If you have not seen one, let me tell you, a bright Iridium flare is one of the most remarkable and exciting visual phenomena than any skywatcher can see.

How to Make Iridium Flare Predictions

You can now make Iridium flare predictions on your own computer using a new program from Software Bisque called TheSkyX (see http://www.bisque.com).

TheSkyX's Iridium flare prediction capability is based upon the rev-oriented computing engine in Space Birds, a satellite tracking and visibility prediction program that I wrote in 1987. Space Birds was distributed during 1988-1991 by Sky Publishing Corp., publisher of the monthly Sky & Telescope magazine.

The Iridium flare prediction problem is one of those problems for which one must resort to computer code. Indeed, to predict all of the flares for a single observer for one week, one must consider in great detail all of the visible passes of the 75 active or spare Iridium satellites, for approximately 100 orbital revolutions. I used Borland's C++ Builder 5 to develop the code for this problem.

How, then, did Mathcad play a role in my efforts? There were two areas for which Mathcad was indispensable, as described below.

Mathcad's Genfit Captures the Parameters of a Nonlinear Curve

To calculate the logarithmic visual magnitude (an estimate of how bright the flare is) at each instant of a flare, I relied on the prior work of Randy John, who wrote the SKYSAT program for predicting Iridium flares. I needed to capture the parameters of Randy's magnitude versus mirror angle curve without resorting to Excel, which I did not have at hand. Mathcad 13's genfit proved perfect for the task. The worksheet by which I extracted the logarithmic curve parameters is attached.

This worksheet constructs a mapping of magnitude vs. mirror angle for an Iridium flare. Source of the data is the graph http://home.comcast.net/~skysat/IRID_PLOT2.htm by Randy John, author of SKYSAT [1].


Data array obtained manually by picking points off the graph of visual magnitude versus Main Mission Antenna (MMA) mirror angle.





Assumed fitting function. The graph looks like a base 10 logarithmic function, log10(x).



Initial estimate of the fitting parameters to Mathcad 13's optimized genfit.



Invoke Mathcad 13's genfit.



Fitting function coefficients returned by genfit.


Now plot fitting function and data points to see how good the fit looks.




The fit is snug and the Magnitude versus Mirror Angle function is



Mathcad and Adobe Acrobat Reader as Presentation Tools

Recently I gave a poster presentation on predicting Iridium flares at the American Astronomical Society's Division on Dynamical Astronomy (DDA) 2008 Meeting in Boulder, Colorado (April 28-May 1, 2008). I constructed the ten panels of the poster using Mathcad. I then wrote the resulting worksheet to a PDF file (via Neevia's docuPrinter LT, in this case). See Attachment 2.

For most presentations nowadays one is expected to bring one's own laptop and plug it into a projector supplied by the conference organizers. So being able to construct a presentation via a Mathcad worksheet, convert it to PDF, and present it via Adobe Acrobat Reader, can be a great convenience.

Finally, in order to provide the background and rationale for my poster presentation, I wanted to prepare a printed handout for attendees. Again, I used Mathcad to prepare the text and printed the resulting worksheet to a PDF file. The PDF file prints to a four-page, 8.5"x5.5" (digest size) flyer. See Attachment 3.

Reference

[1] John, Randy, SKYSAT v0.65 by Randy John. To see the graph IRID_PLOT2.htm, go to the second plot link at http://home.comcast.net/~skysat/.



Right-click, choose Save Target As, and change the extension to XMCD and File Type to All to download Mathcad file
. (Mathcad 13).

Click to download the Poster Flyer created in Mathcad.

Click to download PDF file created in Mathcad for the presentation.




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