By Tim Sullivan
2002 may not seem like a great year for the lubricants industry but, for much of the world, it’s turning out better than 2001.
That’s the assessment of Fuchs Petrolub AG, which is projecting that worldwide lube demand will grow 1.6 percent this year, to 35,690,000 metric tons. The Mannheim, Germany, lubricant manufacturer gave that estimate and projections for individual countries for a recent article published by the German newspaper Handelsblatt.
Fuchs predicted some of the best growth to occur in some of the biggest markets. Demand in North America, which accounts for 25 percent of the world’s total, is pegged for a 2.8 percent increase. Demand in Asia, 28 percent of the world’s total, is projected to rise 2.2 percent. China, Japan, India, Korea and Australia are expected to see growth rates of 2.5 percent, 2.4 percent, 2.9 percent, 1.9 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
Fuchs paints a less rosy picture for Western Europe, which accounts for 14 percent of worldwide lube demand. The company projects consumption for that region to fall 1.5 percent overall, with declines of 0.9 percent, 4.2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively in France, Italy and the United Kingdom. It projects meager 0.1 percent growth in the German market.
|
World Lubricants Demand by Regions
(without marine oils) |
|
|
2001 |
2002* |
Percent |
|
|
KT |
KT |
Change |
|
North America |
8,750 |
9,000 |
2.8 |
|
Latin America |
3,050 |
3,080 |
1.0 |
|
West Europe |
4,880 |
4,810 |
-1.5 |
|
Asia-Pacific |
10,320 |
10,550 |
2.2 |
|
Others |
8,130 |
8,250 |
1.5 |
|
WORLD |
35,130 |
35,690 |
1.6 |
*estimate
Source: Fuchs Petrolub AG
