Dot-com retailers had a message for bricks-and-mortar stores at the start of the 1999 holiday season: We're coming after you.
A year or two later, traditional retailers had their revenge, of course, when stock certificates of such companies as Pets.com Inc., eToys Inc. and Webvan Group Inc. were fit for little more than wrapping paper. With some notable exceptions - including Amazon.com Inc. and eBay Inc. - established stores and catalog companies ended up snaring most of the online sales.
But something surprising happened: Some small Web-only retailers refused to die. A handful in unlikely categories such as jewelry, shoes and luggage are profitable and growing far more quickly than their offline counterparts.
These specialty online retailers are prospering at a time when overall online sales are booming. Consumers are expected to spend $12.2 billion online this year in the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period, up 42 percent from last year, according to Forrester Research of Cambridge, Mass.
The growth reflects a steady shift of retail spending to the online world, as consumers grow more comfortable with the Internet and the spread of high-speed home connections makes browsing and ordering simpler. Online shopping also tends to be more weather-proof; many snowbound Northeasterners ventured out into cyberspace instead of the elements to continue their holiday shopping this past weekend.
Still, a mere 4.5 percent of total retail spending is expected online this year, compared with 3.6 percent in 2002. But even the small shift in retail sales represents a combined billions of dollars for Internet retailers.
Traditional retailers are doing their best to keep holiday customers clicking on their sites by offering good deals. Some are discounting heavily; free-shipping offers are commonplace. Gap Inc., for instance, is waiving standard delivery fees on orders of $100 or more until Dec. 15.
And traditional retailers are reaping enormous benefits from the surge in online spending. This year, about 75 percent of online sales are expected to go to multichannel retailers, meaning real-world stores and catalogs that also sell via Web sites, according to Forrester. Multichannel retailers include Target and Best Buy. Retailers doing the vast majority of their business on the Web account for the remaining 25 percent. Just three years ago, when the dot-com collapse had begun, sales were more evenly divided, with Web-only retailers ringing up about 46 percent of total online sales.
The plucky survivors of the Internet bust are a reminder that, as absurd as the e-commerce craze was, the dot-com era also created significant, longer-lasting opportunities for specialty sellers. They are for the most part pureplay Web operators, taking phone or mail orders only occasionally, if at all.
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