LAKEWOOD, N.J. -- U.S. retail gasoline prices could rebound by as much as 30 to 40 cents per gallon from lows that they will probably reach in the next 45 days, the Oil Price Information Service is reporting.

The report cites spring price trends over the past three years. Wholesale gasoline spiked by nearly 67 percent in 1999, by 37 percent in 2000, and nearly 50 percent last spring. If 2002 follows this trend, OPIS claims, gasoline prices might add anywhere from 19 cents per gallon to 39 cents per gallon this spring.

Analysts say cheap prices for winter blends of gasoline may mask a still troubled gasoline distribution network that has the potential to race higher thanks to supply bottlenecks. The report also claims gasoline may surge even if crude oil prices remain stable. Wholesale Gulf Coast gasoline sells for only about $2.50 a barrel above crude oil at present, with just over $4.00 a barrel separating gasoline and crude for spring delivery.

In addition, a surplus of winter-blend gasoline may make for a particularly volatile transition as the economy moves from off-peak demand months for gasoline to the driving season. Winter gasoline supply has recently been outstripping demand by nearly a million barrels per day, according to OPIS analyst Tom Kloza, who, nonetheless, says expected gasoline demand of 9 million barrels per day or more is likely to place a "strain on the system and push U.S. refiners to the limits of their capabilities."

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